Nebius Group N.V.

Nebius Group N.V. is an Amsterdam-headquartered AI infrastructure company that emerged from the 2024 breakup of Yandex N.V. After Yandex sold its Russian operations to a consortium of local investors in July 2024, the remaining non-Russian assets — led by Yandex co-founder Arkady Volozh and roughly 1,000 ex-Yandex engineers — were renamed Nebius Group and relisted on Nasdaq under NBIS. The crown jewel is Nebius AI, a full-stack AI cloud that designs and operates its own data centers, racks NVIDIA GPUs at scale, and sells managed compute, inference, and ML tooling to AI labs and enterprises.

Unlike asset-light GPU resellers, Nebius is vertically integrated: it secures grid power, builds the data halls, and runs the software layer itself. The company reports >3.5 GW of contracted power (owned >75%) anchored by flagship Finnish sites (Mantsala, Lappeenranta) plus a fast-expanding US footprint — a 300 MW New Jersey site at Vineland, and two gigawatt-scale 'AI factories' under construction at Independence, Missouri (~1.2 GW) and in Pennsylvania (up to 1.2 GW). Year-end-2026 connected power is guided to just 800 MW-1 GW, framing the central investment dynamic: secured capacity dwarfs what is actually energized.

Beyond the core cloud, Nebius retains a portfolio of venture-stage assets: Avride (autonomous vehicles, Texas), TripleTen (edtech bootcamps), and minority stakes in Toloka (data labeling) and ClickHouse (database). Management treats these as non-core; the equity story is overwhelmingly the AI cloud and the power behind it.

The bull case is that Nebius is one of the few neoclouds that controls its own electrons. By owning >75% of its 3.5 GW of contracted power, it captures the full margin stack — power arbitrage, construction, GPUs, and software — rather than renting colocation and reselling chips at a spread. That vertical integration is why adjusted EBITDA flipped positive ($129.5M in Q1-26 versus a $53.7M loss a year earlier) even as the company scales. The signed backlog de-risks the build: a 5-year Microsoft deal worth up to $19.4B and two Meta agreements totaling up to $27B (the larger one combining $12B of dedicated capacity with $15B of compute purchases, delivering from early 2027 on NVIDIA's Vera Rubin platform) give hyperscaler-grade demand to absorb the megawatts as they energize. NVIDIA's $2B equity check is both a supply guarantee and a vote of confidence.

The power gap is the whole trade. Nebius has secured >3.5 GW and guides to >4 GW by year-end, but only ~0.2 GW is operating today and the year-end connected target is 800 MW-1 GW. Every gigawatt that moves from contracted to energized converts a balance-sheet liability into ARR — which already jumped to ~$1.92B (up ~674% YoY). If execution holds, the operating base compounds for years against contracts already signed. That is a cleaner runway than peers still hunting for offtake.

The bear case is capital intensity and concentration. FY-2026 capex guidance is a staggering $20-25B against $3.0-3.4B of revenue — Nebius is spending roughly seven dollars of capex per dollar of sales, funded by $4.34B of convertible notes and prefunded warrants, not cash flow. Despite the EBITDA headline, the adjusted net loss widened to $100.3M, and the FY2025 20-F flagged material weaknesses in fixed-asset and TripleTen revenue-recognition controls. Backlog is concentrated in two customers (Microsoft, Meta) whose own capex cycles could turn; gigawatt sites in Missouri and Pennsylvania carry grid-interconnection and construction-timeline risk; and at ~$61B market cap on ~$400M of quarterly revenue, the multiple already prices flawless conversion of contracted power into lit, paid-for compute.

A GPU-cloud operator at heart, but one that owns >75% of its 3.5 GW of contracted power and self-builds its data centers — so it sits high on the compute side yet controls the electrons, unlike asset-light resellers. Not a pure power lessor; the value is the full stack.